What's Moving Markets: Nov 19 U.S. Update

We're well into November, and there have been numerous big movers, significant technical events, earnings preview and notable corporate news! This article covers a brief rundown of this week's top U.S. Market pivotal movement written by the head of our North American Research Desk, Gary Christie.
 

The S&P 500 declined 1.61% last week.

On the economic data front, retail sales advanced by 0.8% MoM in October (estimated 0.5%) vs. a slight decline of 0.1% in the previous month. CPI advanced by 0.3% MoM in October, in-line with estimates, compared to an improvement of 0.1% in September. Also, initial jobless claims reached 216k in week ended November 10th (forecasted 213k) compared to 214k a week earlier. Finally, the monthly budget reached a deficit of $100.5B in October (estimated $100B) from a deficit of $63.2B in September.  
 
Looking at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), The index remains bearish below 281.25 as this corresponds to the 50% fibonacci retracement level from the swing high of 294 and low of 260. Our downside targets are set at 260 to test Oct lows and ultimately 254.7 to test April lows. Small cap stocks are underperforming large caps.
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The VIX remains elevated above 16 with a target of 23.
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Looking at sector performance, Health Care, Pharma, Food & Staples retailing and Household products sectors remain the best performing relative the the overall S&P 500. Stocks in the Energy, Technology hardware & Equipment, Capital Goods and Consumer durables sectors should be avoided or shorted.

We had some big movers last week. Here's a look at the 9 most notable:

  1. Nvidia (NVDA -20.05% WoW to $164.43) announced 3Q adj. EPS of $1.84 (estimated $1.92) vs. $1.33 a year ago on revenue of $3.18B (estimated $3.24B) from $2.64B in the prior year. Adj. gross margin reached 61%, missing estimates of 62.8%, compared to 59.7% a year earlier. The Co raised its quarterly dividend to $0.16 per share (forecasted $0.17) from $0.15 per share.
  2. Nordstrom (JWN -22.2% WoW to $50.93) reported 3Q diluted EPS of $0.39 vs. $0.67 a year ago on revenue of $3.75B (forecasted $3.69B) from $3.63B in the previous year. Net income dropped by 41% YoY to $67M. Total comparable sales improved by 2.3%, lower than expectations of 2.4%, while gross margin declined by 137bps YoY to 33.3%, lower than estimates of 34.2%. The Co boosted its FY guidance for comparable sales to a growth of 2% vs. prior view of 1.5% - 2% and raised its FY forecast of adj. EPS to a range of $3.55 - $3.65 (expected $3.63) from the previous estimate of $3.50 - $3.65. Finally, the Co boosted its FY estimate of net sales to a range of $15.5B - $15.6B (forecasted $15.9B) compared to prior view of $15.4B - $15.5B.
  3. NetApp (NTAP -11.96% WoW to $71.9) unveiled 2Q adj. EPS of $1.06 (estimated $0.99) vs. $0.81 last year on net revenue up 7% YoY to $1.52B (expected $1.51B). Net income advanced by 38.5% YoY to $241M. The Co sees 3Q adj. EPS of $1.12 - $1.18 (forecasted $1.12) and anticipates net revenue to reach $1.55B - $1.65B, aligned with estimates. 
  4. Wal-Mart (WMT -7.46% WoW to $97.69) reported 3Q adj. EPS of $1.08 (estimated $1.01) vs. $1 a year ago on revenue of $124.9B (forecasted $125.49B) from $123.2 in the previous year. Comparable sales excluding fuel jumped by 3.4%, beating expectations of 2.9%. The Co now targets FY US comparable sales of at least 3% from its prior view of about 3%. Finally, the Co boosted its FY guidance on adj. EPS to a range of $4.75 - $4.85 (forecasted $4.76) vs. prior view of $4.65 - $4.8. 
  5. Macy's (M  -11.86% WoW to $33.3) reported 3Q adj. EPS of $0.27 (estimated $0.14) vs. $0.21 last year on net sales of $5.4B (forecasted $5.41B) from $5.3B in the previous year. Comparable sales on an owned basis improved by 3.1%, beating estimates of 2.5%, while net income jumped by 107% YoY to $62M. The Co boosted its FY guidance on adj. EPS to a range of $4.1 - $4.3 (expected $4.03) from the prior range of $3.95 - $4.15 and expects FY sales to grow by 0.3% to 0.7%. 
  6. PG&E Corp (PCG  -38.88% WoW to $24.4) fell heavily after stating that it doesn't have enough insurance coverage if the Co is found liable for the fire in Northern California, according to Bloomberg. The Co has a wildfire liability insurance coverage of $1.4B for FY ending July 31st 2019. A Citi analyst expects the damages to exceed $15B. In other news, the Co was downgraded to "sell" from "hold" at Edward Jones. Besides, the Co printed a new 52w low. Later in the week, the Co jumped after a California Public Utilities Commission official told investors on a conference call that the agency does not want the Co to go into bankruptcy, reported Bloomberg citing a person familiar with the matter. In other news, Moody's Investors Service downgraded the Co's rating to "Baa3" from "Baa2", the second-lowest level of investment grade, with the possibility of further downgrade. The S&P cut its issuer credit ratings on the Co as well as its subsidiary Pacific Gas & Electric to "BBB-" from "BBB". Finally, the Co was upgraded to "buy" from "neutral" at Citi. 
  7. General Electric Co (GE -6.53% WoW to $8.02) entered into long-term agreements with Baker Hughes, a GE Company (BHGE +0.68% to $23.8) to make some changes on the commercial and technological front. Also, both companies agreed on a release of the lock-up restrictions which "prevented GE from disposing of shares of BHGE common stock until July 2019".
  8. Apple (AAPL -5.35% WoW to $193.53) was under pressure as one of its suppliers which makes laser diodes for 3D sensing, Lumentum Holdings (LITE -32.98% to $37.5), cut its second quarter outlook after one of its largest customers asked to "meaningfully reduce shipments" for previously approved orders, reported Bloomberg. Technically speaking, the Co is trading near its 200-day moving average.  

Earnings preview this week: 

  • LB: On Monday in after-hours, L Brands is expected to report 3Q EPS of $0.13 vs. $0.3 a year ago on revenue of $2.8B from $2.6B in the prior year. In other news, the Co was raised to "outperform" from "market perform" at Wells Fargo. Technically speaking, the RSI is above 70. It could mean either that the stock is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and therefore bound to correct (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the stock is trading above both its 20 and 50 day MA (respectively at 32.56 and 30.44). We are looking to reach a higher target of $41.9 with a stop-loss of $35. 
  • BBY: On Tuesday, Best Buy is likely to announce 3Q EPS of $0.851 vs. $0.78 last year on higher revenue of $9.6B compared to $9.3B a year earlier. Also, the Co was downgraded to "neutral" from "buy" at Bank of America. From a chartist point of view, the RSI is below 50 while the MACD is negative and above its signal line. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the stock is trading under both its 20 and 50 day MA (respectively at 71.29 and 74.63). We expect the stock to move towards $80.5 with a stop-loss at $64.9. 
  • ADI: On same day, Analog Devices is awaited to post 4Q EPS of $1.53 vs. $1.45 a year ago on revenue of $1.6B from $1.5B in the previous year. In other news, the Co was cut to "sell" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs. Looking at the chart, the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50 while the MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the share stands above its 20 day MA (84.19) but below its 50 day MA (88.84). As long as the stock is trading below $93.6, we are confident it can reach a lower target of $78.6. 
  • GPS: On same day as well, Gap is anticipated to unveil 3Q EPS of $0.679 vs. $0.583 last year on revenue of $4B vs. $3.8B in the prior year. Also, the Co authorized a 4Q2018 dividend of $0.2425 per share payable on or after January 30th to shareholders of record at the close on January 9th. From a technical point of view, the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50 while the MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the share stands above its 20 day MA (27.11) but below its 50 day MA (27.64). We anticipate further downside towards $24.3 with a stop-loss of $29. 

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